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Mortgage Market Guide: Inflation Was Hot. Find Out What Is Not.

 

In This Issue  

Last Week in Review: Inflation ticked up in November while Retail Sales slipped and new construction fell.

Forecast for the Week: Investment activity may slow down, but economic data will be full throttle.

View: How telling are your eye expressions in business communication?


Last Week in Review  

“How much is that doggie in the window?” Patti Page. Consumers pulled back on spending in November, but their costs ticked up.

MMG Weekly: Inflation Was Hot. Find Out What Is Not.

The Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales rose 0.1 percent in November, down from the 0.6 percent recorded in October (which was revised lower from 0.8 percent). Sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2015. The report showed that sales slowed in the first two weeks of the month but picked up again after the election heading into Black Friday.

Inflation is starting to trend higher at both the wholesale and consumer levels, upping costs for a variety of items. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.4 percent in November, hotter than expected. The Consumer Price Index for November was in line with expectations, though it is edging higher when compared to November 2015. Inflation is an important measure for home loan rates because it reduces the value of fixed investments like Mortgage Backed Securities. These are the type of Bond to which home loans are tied.

Both consumer spending and Inflation were important points for the Federal Open Market Committee as it wrapped up its final meeting of 2016 and announced an increase to the benchmark Fed Funds Rate by a quarter percentage point. The new rate range is 0.5 to 0.75 percent. This is the rate at which banks lend to one another overnight, and the increase does not directly influence home loan rates.

On the subject of housing, Building Permits and Housing Starts dropped in November. Building Permits were 4.7 percent below October and 6.6 percent below the same time last year. Permits for single-family units, however, were up 0.5 percent from October. Housing Starts, which measure when excavation begins on a home, were down 18.7 percent from October and down 6.9 percent from November 2015. November’s numbers could be a bit distorted to the downside as builders may have held back on projects ahead of the election. It’s important to note that one bad reading doesn’t make a trend, and I will be watching future reports closely.

If you or someone you know has any questions about the housing market, home loan rates or products, please don’t hesitate to contact me.


Forecast for the Week  
Trading volumes may diminish heading into the holidays, but economic data remains plentiful.
  • Housing data releases begin Wednesday with Existing Home Sales followed by New Home Sales on Friday.
  • Thursday is report-heavy with the final reading of third quarter Gross Domestic Product, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures.
  • As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims also will be report Thursday.
  • On Friday, the Consumer Sentiment Index will be delivered.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, after leveling off for a short time, Mortgage Bonds took a dive recently. Despite the uptick in home loan rates, they still remain historically low.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 16, 2016)
Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…  

What Do Your Eye Expressions Say?

In any business environment, it’s important to be aware of communication signals you may be inadvertently sending. Your eye expressions, for example, can convey so much with little effort. Understanding that body language is often more about how people interpret your signals, rather than the actual intention behind them, is key. Here are five insights into how people may interpret your eye contact:

Narrowing your eyes is often an involuntary response when you’re concentrating. People can misinterpret this innocent response as anger, disagreement or harsh judgment, especially if you’re looking directly at someone. Practice keeping your eyes open and alert without raising your eyebrows.

Checking the clock is an innocent habit that will signal a lack of interest. Never let anyone think you don’t value their time, even if a meeting is going into overtime. Presence of mind shows you hold people in high regard, which has many business benefits.

Avoiding eye contact, can signal a confidence problem, undermine trust, and if you’re speaking, can convey you don’t have a full grasp of your subject. Correct this issue by occasionally making eye contact for just three seconds with those around you.

Maintaining strong eye contact can be perceived as an intimidation tactic. But the way you break eye contact is important. Looking to the side of a person’s head, rather than looking down, is best.

Rolling your eyes is always a communication killer. Even if you don’t value or agree with what’s being said or you are frustrated, rolling eyes can cause people to shut down, resulting in less information and not accomplishing tasks. Find less conspicuous ways to channel frustration, like pressing the pads of two fingers together.

Eyes aren’t the only communication tools at your disposal. Check out 20 more body language mistakes you could be making.

Please feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.

Source: American Express OPEN Forum

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 19 – December 23
MMG Weekly: Inflation Was Hot. Find Out What Is Not.

 

 


Questions, Comments or For more information you can call Christian Penner Branch Manager at Call/Text: (561) 373-0987 or email us at TheMortgageTeam@ChristianPenner.com

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712 U.S. Highway 1 North #300, North Palm Beach, FL 33408

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Mortgage Market Guide: Inflation Was Hot. Find Out What Is Not.

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Your Local Branch Manager & Mortgage Lender That Also Has The Resources To Be A Mortgage Broker

About Me, My Family, The Mortgage Team & You

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Branch Manager | Mortgage Lender

Christian Penner Your Local Branch Manager and Mortgage Lender That Specializes In All Types Of Home Mortgage Loans: VA – FHA – USDA – Fannie/Freddie – Jumbo – Self Employed – Private Loans – Fix & Flip Loans & Reverse Mortgages

I am currently a Branch Manager with The Christian Penner Mortgage Team, A Division of Hamilton Group Funding, Inc. I have been in the Real Estate Lending Business since 1997. I Graduated from the University of Florida, in 1996, with a BS Degree in Business Administration with a Double Major in Business Finance and Real Estate. I have also graduated from the Todd Duncan Mortgage Productivity School and I am a Licensed Florida Mortgage Loan Originator: NMLS#368289.

About Me

I have lived in North Palm Beach County Since 1976, after moving from Cleveland Ohio. I started working for a Norwest Financial, a Sales Finance Company right out of college providing personal consumer loans, Sales Financial Loans, and Mortgage Loans. I Maintained being a Top 10% Producer throughout my career with the company. I then transferred to Norwest Mortgage which later became Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Do to my success with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, I opened and Managed a Wells Fargo Branch office, in Jupiter FL until 2004. Since then I have been a Producing Branch Manager for a few different companies and Banks and I am now the the Manager of The Christian Penner Mortgage Team, a Division of Hamilton Group Funding.

About My Family

More important than my profession is my family. I originally met my wife when I was in the 6th grade, at a Church Youth Group, but we did not actually start a relationship until after we both graduated from College. We have been married since 2003 and we have two amazing children. My son is named after me and my daughter’s name is Brooke and they are a little over a year apart. I really enjoy spending time with them and my wife when I am not working. We all enjoy boating, Golf, going on vacations and enjoying time together at our house in the pool. I also try to stay involved when they are playing soccer, flag football, baseball and martial arts.

Our Goals For You
Our goal for you is to help you to minimize your tax liability and maximize your cash flow. In today's market a mortgage loan is more than ever a financial instrument that must be tied into your long and short term personal financial plan. This will allow you to create a debt strategy that will help you to build long term wealth for you and your family.

The Mortgage Team
We are privileged and Fortunate to have a very experienced Mortgage Team of Professionals that share the same vision. Our intention is to impress upon you the importance of making your mortgage a pivotal component to your overall financial planning strategy. Our goal is to custom fit you with the best overall financing package by, integrating the financing you select with your long and short-term financial and investment goals, which are coupled with your payment and equity objectives.

Throughout the process of your transaction you will be dealing with our entire team at various stages during the loan process. You quest for a new home loan begins with my Intake Team. They will be responsible for working closely from start to finish, answering questions and gathering all the necessary documents for Processing.

Our Processing Team are responsible for the Underwriting Stage, Loan Approval Stage, Cleared to Close Stage and the Closed Stage.

Our Team will stay in touch with you throughout the process, before, during and after your closing. As your Personal Loan Consultant, I will oversee every stage of the process. It is our goal to make the mortgage Loan Process the best part of your home buying experience you will ever have.

We want more then to just earn your business; we want to make you part of our family. Rest assured that with our "Client For Life" commitment, You will always be our #1 priority. We surely hope that you will refer us to all your friends, Family and co-workers!

For Business Partners
Christian works with several referral partners including Realtors, Real Estate Attorney’s, CPA’s, Financial Advisors, Insurance Professionals, Developers and Builders. He is a visionary and his goal is to facilitate and empower you to reach your Marketing & Business goals! I have incorporated multiple cutting edge sales strategies, for his Referral Partners, that include that include lead generation systems using Social Media Technology through Live Streaming using Facebook Live, FaceBook Messenger Bots, Facebook Ads, CRM's, Facebook Business Pages, Google + For Business, Google Adwords, , WordPress, Video Marketing, Webinars, Single Property Websites, Craig's List, Squeeze Pages, Blogging, Text to Voice Technology, QR Codes and Post Closing Marketing Campaigns with co-branding.

Testimonials & Reviews

What my clients say about my service

  • Christian and his team not only helped us purchase our beautiful home but a year later helped us refinance and save hundreds of dollars a month with no out-of-pocket costs for us! To Christian, Mary and the rest of the team: THANK YOU!!!!!

    Bret G
    Bret G Palm Beach, FL
  • Knowledgeable and helpful. Christian's team got the job done and we closed on a great home and got a good rate.

    Jeffrey H.
    Jeffrey H. Vienna, Austria
  • Christian Penner is the best mortgage lender I have ever worked with. He really helped me out and he was able to get my mortgage closed on time! So If you are looking for a great mortgage team then you need to call Christian Penner!

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    Joshua B. Palm Beach, FL
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    The Christian Penner Mortgage is the best mortgage team, I have ever worked with! They have solutions for type of situation.
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