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Mortgage Market Guide: The Ups and Downs of Home Sales

In This Issue  

Last Week in Review: Home sales had their share of ups and downs in June.

Forecast for the Week: We’ll take the temperature on July job creation.

View: Make scheduling a snap with these apps.


Last Week in Review  

“Home. Home on the range. Where the deer and the antelope play.” Bing Crosby. A discouraging word was heard on Existing Home Sales, but New Home Sales were not cloudy all day.

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New Home Sales were a bright spot, edging higher in June. The Commerce Department reported New Home Sales rose a modest 0.8 percent from May to an annual rate of 610,000 units, which was in line with estimates. From June 2016 to June 2017, New Home Sales rose 9.1 percent.

Existing Home Sales slipped, though, falling 1.8 percent from May to June to an annual rate of 5.52 million units, below the 5.58 million expected. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) said sales were up only 0.7 percent year over year, the second lowest reading of 2017. The NAR explained that the decline in sales is due in part to the ongoing theme: a low supply of homes for sale on the market. Total housing inventory was at a 4.3-month supply at the June sales pace and has fallen year over year for 25 consecutive months. Normal inventory levels are around six months.

Home price gains remain steady as demand for homes continues to outweigh supply in many key areas across the nation. The May S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Index rose 5.7 percent year over year, in line with estimates and just below the 5.8 percent in April.

In other news, the first estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was solid, increasing at a rate of 2.6 percent, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of our nation’s economic activity, fueled the increase. First quarter GDP was revised lower, increasing 1.2 percent rather than the 1.4 previously reported.

Finally, the Federal Reserve released a rather dovish monetary policy statement following its Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As expected, the benchmark Federal Funds Rate remained unchanged. The Fed noted it expects inflation to remain tame for some time, which is typically good news for Mortgage Bonds and the home loan rates tied to them.

At this time, home loan rates remain just above historic lows.

If you or someone you know has questions about home loan products or current rates please contact me. I’d be happy to help.


Forecast for the Week  
Here’s hoping July’s job growth was hot like June. We’ll find out on Friday.
  • Pending Home Sales kick off the week Monday.
  • Manufacturing data releases start Monday as well with the regional Chicago PMI report, followed by the ISM Index on Tuesday.
  • Also on Tuesday, look for the inflation-measuring Personal Consumption Expenditures along with Personal Income and Personal Spending.
  • The ISM Services Index will be released Thursday.
  • Employment data is plentiful, starting with Wednesday’s release of the ADP National Employment Report, Thursday’s release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Jobs Report for July, which includes Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds traded in a sideways pattern in recent days while home loan rates remain near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 28, 2017)
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The Mortgage Market Guide View…  

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Economic Calendar for the Week of July 31 – August 04
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Source: Click Me


Questions, Comments or For more information you can call Christian Penner Branch Manager at Call/Text: (561) 316-6800 or email us at TheMortgageTeam@ChristianPenner.com

Christian Penner Branch Manager | Cell/Text: (561) 316-6800

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Christian Penner
South Flagler Drive, Suite 800, West Tower West Palm Beach, FL 33401

Cell/Text: (561) 316-6800

Christian Penner
712 U.S. Highway 1 North #300, North Palm Beach, FL 33408

Cell/Text: (561) 316-6800

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ChristianPenner.com

http://www.christianpenner.com/mortgage-market-guide-ups-downs-home-sales/

Mortgage Market Guide: The Ups and Downs of Home Sales

The Christian Penner Mortgage Team | Cell/Text: (561) 316-6800

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